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All gambling has its basis in mathematical probabilities.
The most equitable gamble that can be made is on the flip of a coin where the return is almost equal to the sum invested.
Mathematicians rate the probability of a certain side of the coin being face up at 50%
A coin flipped 2 million times will come down approximately to 49.9% for one side and 50.1% for the other. So with a constant stake over 2 million gambles a punter would either win or lose 0.2% of there investments - [A miniscule amount - either way]
Having said that though in the flip of a coin 2 million times the longest continuous outcome for the same side is up to 21 in a row
All forms of probabilities are not that accommodating.
An American roulette wheel with 38 Numbers, provides a 2.63% chance that a number on the wheel, being chosen by the ball. However the number "0" and "00" (Technically are not Natural Numbers) DO NOT return ANY dividend to the punter.
For the remaining 36 numbers the dividend paid is only 35 times the wager. So if you make one (1) million investments on a roulette wheel, betting on a single number, with a standardise wager, your return has a probability of returning you 92.1% of your investments.
So for a $1,000,000 investments that is a $921,000 return.- IF you are lucky to have ALL THINGS EQUAL.
And things goes downhill from there.
Mathematicians and scientists often work together to develop a "Probability Index" for events based upon the quality and quantity of data that can be amassed.
Most people would be familiar with some examples such as a flood within a river catchment at a certain height being a calculated 'probability event'.
For Example: Over a significant period of time (the history of recorded data) an event would be classified as averaging say 'once in every hundred years (1:100)'
But despite the engagement of scientists and mathematicians the reliability of the information is what is known in the trade as 'back of the envelope calculations'
And even if as reliable as the probability of a coin toss, over a 1000 year period you could still have three '1:100 year' events within 50 years and then none for 400 years.
Now let's take an example of an historic and popular form of gambling, - 'betting on horse racing.
' Here is a list of some of the main factors effecting the probability of a certain horse winning:-
* Genetics
* Skill of the Trainer
* Age
* Sex
* Fitness
* Personality (Part Genetic; Part Life Experience)
* Skill of the Rider (Jockey)
* Strength of Competition
* Number of Horses in the Race
* State of the Track
* Direction of the Track
* Barrier Draw
* Length of the Race
From all of these factors the Bookmaker (as they were referred to years ago but now the gambling company) will develop a 'probability ratio' of the performance of each individual horse and convert that into an estimated return upon the value of the investment.
This may be shown as a ratio (10:1) or it may be shown as a money value ($6.80) based upon a specified money value for the unit of investment ($1:00)
Having established the ‘probability ratio’ the bookmaker will assign a portion of the 'probability' to the odds offered.
So, a 100 : 1 probability is set at a 20 : 1 odds
And so on it goes……
With today's technology and sophisticated algorithms the ability to make sure that the chance of winning over a longer term can easily be set to Zero
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Put Together